Global S & P ratings Cut the growth forecast for the 2012 India financial year at 9.5%

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S & P Global Notes Thursday Cut Cut Cut Cut Forecast of India’s Defense Forecast for Current Tax 9.5% from 11% earlier, and warned of risk for other waves prospects pandemic of Covid.

The Agency lowered growth prospects indicating that a second COVID-19 epidemic in April and may have led to lock-floors imposed by States and a strong contraction in economic activity.

“We expect growth of 9.5% this exercise of our March of 11%, said S & P.

Indicating that the permanent damage to the private and public sector balances would force growth over the next two years, he projected India’s growth at 7.8% at the next tax taxation of March 31, 2023.

“The other pandemic waves are a risk for the outlook as only about 15% of the population has received at least one dose of vaccine so far, although vaccine supplies are expected to increase,” said S & P. .

The Indian economy has committed 7.3% during the 2020-21 fiscal year, the country that fought the first wave of COVID, against a growth of 4% in 2019-19.

GDP growth in the current budget has been estimated at two digits initially, but a serious second wave of pandemic has led to various agencies reducing growth projections.

Earlier this month, RBI also cut India’s growth at 9.5% for this tax, from 10.5% estimated earlier.

This stated that manufacturing and exports were less severely affected compared to 2020, but the services were extremely disturbed. Consumption indicators such as vehicle sales fell sharply in May 2021 and consumer confidence stay on the rise.

“The economy has turned a corner now. The new cases of COVID-19 have fallen coherently and mobility is recovering. We expect this recovery to be less steep in relation to the rebound at the end of 2020 and at the beginning of 2021, he says.

Said households spare savings buffers to support consumption and the desire to rebuild savings could retain expenses even as the economy reopens.

“Monetary and budget policies will remain accommodating but a new stimulus will not come,” he added.

S & P says that RBI has no place to reduce interest rates with inflation greater than 6% the upper end of the Central Bank’s target range.

In addition, tax policy is limited by a limited political space, in particular because the budget of the financial year 2022 (ending March 31, 2022), decided before the second wave of COVID-19, had already targeted a general deficit. 9.5% of GDP of 9.5% of GDP. .

S & P joins a crowd of global and national agencies that reduced India’s growth estimates for the current fiscal year.

Another rating agency based on the United States, Moody’s projected India to increase a growth of 9.3% of the end of the end of the end of 20022. For the 2021 calendar year, Moody’s A Reduces the estimation of growth at 9.6%.

Earlier this month, the World Bank had reduced the forecast of GDP growth for the final fiscal end of 2022 to 8.3% from 10.1% estimated in April, claiming that the economic recovery is hindered by The second devastating wave of coronavirus infections.

The internal rating agency ICRA had also planned economic growth of 8.5% for this exercise, while the British British brokerage firm had last month had the growth of India’s growth at 9.2 %.